CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2014-03-23T04:09:00-CME-001)

(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)
(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from  excerpted Forecast Discussion below)
(Submitted Kp estimate is from the excerpted Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast below)
--

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2014 Mar 24 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2014 (S14E20, Dsc/beta-gamma)
produced a long-duration C5/Sf flare at 23/0348 UTC which was the
largest event of the period. Regions 2010 (S15W13,
Dac/beta-gamma-delta), 2014 (S14E20, Dsc/beta-gamma), and  2017 (N09E45,
Dai/beta-gamma) all exhibited moderate growth this period and join
Region 2015 (S14W42, Cao/beta-delta) in being the most magnetically
complex regions on the visible disk. The other regions on the disk were
unremarkable. A coronal mass ejection (CME), associated with the
long-duration C5 flare mentioned above, was observed in SOHO LASCO C2
imagery beginning at 23/0500 UTC. Subsequent analysis indicates a
glancing-blow CME arrival late day two (25 Mar)/early day three (26
Mar). See the 'Geospace Forecast' section below for further details.
      
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate)) flare activity over the next three days (24 - 26 Mar).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at
background levels for the next three days (24 - 26 Mar).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of continued weak influence of a
positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind
speeds were steady in the 435-575 km/s range. Total field strength
values ranged from 3 nT - 8 nT while the Bz component ranged from +6 nT
to -4 nT. The phi angle remained steady in a positive (away) sector
throughout the period.
   
.Forecast...
Solar wind speeds are expected to remain enhanced (450-550 km/s) for the
next three days (24 - 26 Mar) due to a combination of CH HSS influence
early in the period and CME effects mid to late in the period.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day
one (24 Mar) due to CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected on day two (25 Mar) due to a combination of CH HSS influence
and arrival of the 23 Mar CME late in the day. The WSA-ENLIL model
output shows a glancing-blow CME arrival midday on 26 Mar, but due to
observed solar wind speed values being higher than indicated on the
model output, we're expecting the CME to arrive late day two (25
Mar)/early day three (26 Mar).
--
Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2014 Mar 24 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 24-Mar 26 2014 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 24-Mar 26 2014

            Mar 24     Mar 25     Mar 26
00-03UT        3          2          3     
03-06UT        4          3          4     
06-09UT        3          2          3     
09-12UT        2          2          2     
12-15UT        2          2          2     
15-18UT        2          1          1     
18-21UT        2          2          1     
21-00UT        2          3          2     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. 
Active (Below G1-Minor) levels are expected on day 1 (Mar 24) due to
coronal hole high speed stream activity and on day 3 (Mar 26) due to
continued coronal hole activity coupled with a glancing blow from the 23
Mar CME.
...

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